And the NFC South doesn't have any other teams ranked in FPI's top 10. A solid team all around, but more importantly, proficient on offense and defense. One playoff win and taking the Kansas City Chiefs to the brink last season opened opportunities for the Browns, who possess one of the most talented rosters in the conference. The Bengals should be better, but they aren't close to competing for a championship yet -- especially residing in the AFC North. 23. It took just seven wins for Washington to top the NFC East last season, and FPI still doesn't think much of the division a year later. An 11-win team with only 20.3 points per game. A game remembered more for trick plays and bad refereeing than the actual quality of either team, the Pittsburgh Steelers emerged victorious in their effort to send Jerome Bettis off into the sunset in style. There was a reason the Colts were heavily favored going into the big game: The Jets were not all that good. Replying to @GoBirds___ and @FanDuel. The 49ers' projection is based on the assumption that Jimmy Garoppolo is the starting quarterback. A 133 record, and a top 5 offense and defense, this was the derailing of a potential dynasty. San Francisco's three games based on last year's standings are against the Eagles, Bengals and Falcons, who all rank 24th or worse in FPI. This Bills team should have won a Super Bowl and it is hard to believe looking back. This 97 Cardinals team scored 78. Matt Rhule is a coach whose stock Im buying low.. Slightly. They play in an easy division and should be able to host a playoff game. He saved the team from the clutches of defeat and led a game-winning fourth-quarter drive. This team is just two years removed from the AFC Championship Game and is in position to "win now." Peyton Mannings struggles reinforced the notion that he could be great in the regular season but collapsed in the playoffs. The Falcons still have Matt Ryan at quarterback, who has thrown for the most passing yards in the league over the last three years and has a emerging star in Calvin Ridley and a game-changing tight end in rookie first-rounderKyle Pitts. Including the next one. Baltimore has a unique spot on this list because its inclusion is not based on mediocre talent (it had players like Bubba Smith and Johnny Unitas) or that it struggled to win games (the Colts went 11-2-1). But Elways scramble which ended with him being helicoptered in the air remains the most memorable visual from the game. ELEVEN! Finishing 133 and a high-energy offense by Sean McVay, the Rams were a force to be reckoned with. Here are the 10 teams most likely to win Super Bowl LV: Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay is still not that likely, however. 10 wins in a 14-game season, and this was easily the least impressive of Tom Landry's Dallas Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl. They took down what was supposed to be the greatest team in NFL history and instead became one of the least likely Super Bowl champions in recent memory. They played in plenty of close games, and Steve McNair and Eddie George were superb. First place on this list scored 140 points in my grading system. The Rams are firmly in the mix this year. Will head coach Zac Taylor actually commit to the run and take the pressure off of Burrow? The game was expected to be a blowout Green Bay was favored by 13.5 points and it was. This defense really let the team down in the biggest game, but they were phenomenal and a top defense throughout the season. Plenty of star power like Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Aaron Donald, and Ndamukong Suh. A great defense and front seven, but their running game hit on all cylinders with 2.305 total team rushing yards. The biggest preseason long shot to win the Super Bowl was the 1999 St. Louis Rams behind unknown QB Kurt Warner; the Rams were 300-1. Three different QBs started six games. You may have been expecting one of the more famous Super Bowl results to land a little higher on the list. Super Bowl V between the Baltimore Colts and Dallas Cowboys is often considered the worst Super Bowl ever played simply because of the terrible play from both teams. It was never even close as the Seahawks dominated from the opening snap. Same goes for this one. The game was a blowout but did give us one of the most iconic moments in Super Bowl history: Don Beebe chasing down a prematurely celebrating Leon Lett. Tannehill is second in the league in passer rating (110.6), second in touchdown percentage (7.2) and first in yards per attempt (8.55). The Lions are in the first year of a rebuild, as Dan Campbell looks to change the culture of a franchise that has just one playoff win over the last 63 years. Twelve franchises have never captured a Super Bowl title. Jacksonville was the worst team in the league last year, but the Jaguars were competitive in half of their games (seven of their losses were by one score). It was easily the sloppiest Super Bowl of all-time. As of now, FPI is working under the assumption that two rookies -- the Jaguars' Lawrence and the Jets' Wilson -- are their respective teams' current starters. Michael Strahan and Keith Hamilton combined for 19.5 sacks, and the team had 44 total. Even without Wentz, the forecast for that stretch is better than one might guess; on average, the Colts win 2.2 of those games, and the chances that they start 0-5 is just over 1 in 20. If Murray can stay healthy, the sky's the limit for this team. Buffalo has a top 10 pass defense led by one of the game's best cornerbacks in Tre'Davious White and Pro Bowl snub Jordan Poyer, but the run defense has to improve to beat a team like Kansas City. If you look at the teams in this stratosphere, theres a lot of continuity at the coordinator positions and, obviously, head coach and QB. The Kansas City Chiefs might have lost Super Bowl LV, but they are still the NFL team to beat this season, according to the new ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) projections for 2021. When Indianapolis traded for Wentz, the organization bet on a bounce-back year from the former Eagles quarterback. Star quarterback Phil Simms was injured during the playoffs, no player had more than 30 catches during the regular season and the team was carried by a great defense that allowed only 13.2 points per game. He finished fourth in the league in completion percentage (69.2), fifth in passing yards, fifth in passing touchdowns, and fourth in passer rating -- while also rushing for 421 yards and eight touchdowns. Reporting on what you care about. A smart strategy? There have been some very random teams that reached the conference championship game in recent years (Titans and 49ers, 2020; Jaguars and Vikings 2018), though. Chicago Bears +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total). With a 19% chance to win the Super Bowl, the Chiefs are a bit above average for the league's favorite heading into the season. Watson led the NFL in passing yards and yards per attempt, carrying an offense that finished 31st in the league in rushing. Something for everyone interested in hair, makeup, style, and body positivity. Jim Plunkett, a 33-year-old signal-caller at the time, was plucked off the bench early in the season and was the catalyst for the team making the playoffs, but even he only threw 18 touchdowns compared to 16 interceptions. The wild card is first-time head coach Brandon Staley, who probably is an upgrade over Anthony Lynn but hes only been in the NFL since 2017, so how could anyone say for sure? Tough division, and they open with three of four on the road. Disputed loan at center of Commanders probe, Team-by-team strength-of-schedule rankings, Projecting the NFL's best and worst pass-protecting offensive lines: 1-32 ranking, Ranking all 32 NFL teams based on how much better (or worse) they got this offseason, NFL Future Power Rankings: Projections for all 32 teams for the next three seasons, Watson sexually assaulted them or engaged in sexually inappropriate behavior, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. As far as the division title is concerned, Baltimore is a narrow favorite over the Browns: 43% to 40%. The Jaguars and Jets are back-to-back in FPI's rankings -- at Nos. Again, FPI doesn't think the division is much-improved. 3. It was not only totally unexpected but it was made possible by a play-call that will be debated for years to come. If the Saints slip a bit, there's a spot open for the Panthers to take a leap in 2021. Some may argue this should be higher than third, but, before Scott Norwoods infamous miss, the Giants and Bills did not give us a very exciting game. 2) The AFC North is a filthy, disgusting mosh pit whence nobody comes out alive. A fullback even if it was Hall of Famer Larry Csonka winning MVP tells you just how entertaining this one was. We've been projecting preseason chances to get the top draft picks only since 2018, but no team has entered the year more likely to walk away from the No. We have all heard this "Cinderella story" one too many times, but it's worth going over for the purposes of this piece. The first five weeks of Indianapolis' schedule are rough, as the Colts host the Seahawks and Rams before hitting the road to face the Titans, Dolphins and Ravens. Even the worst of the second-place teams showed they could have won it all. Both teams have two of the most talented rosters in the league and look to make an even deeper playoff run -- finally attempting to end title droughts that have lasted more than a half-century. The Broncos do have to see Mahomes and the Chiefs twice, but they play only four top-10 FPI teams and get the extra home game for being in the AFC. Ill assume you didnt watch the IMPORTANT NOTE: I used my own mathematical point system involving team records, offensive production, and defensive production to determine the order. 55) Super Bowl XLVIII (2013) The 2013 Seahawks were able to take advantage of this game to solidify themselves as an all-time NFL defense. Any NFL fan intuitively knows that basing strength of schedule on the previous season's record is a fool's errand because teams' abilities change too much from year to year to go off that, not to mention the fact that a single NFL season is not always a great indicator for the talent of a team. In the playoffs, Indianapolis Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt had to have a meltdown of epic proportions to send the Steelers to the Conference Championship and cover up for Bettis' fumble earlier in the contest. The Cardinals added more playmakers to surround Murray this offseason with A.J. Green Bay looked as if it would blow the Steelers out but Ben Roethlisberger led a rally that cut the lead from 18 to three before Mason Crosby put the game away with a field goal. Aaron Rodgers capped off a brilliant playoff run with a masterful performance against one of the leagues best defenses. Now the Colts will need to stay afloat while he recovers from foot surgery, which likely will cause him to miss the beginning of the season. The AFC is considerably tougher than the NFC. FPI thinks they take another step forward this season. Pittsburgh Steelers +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Their win total is 8.5, yet Mike Tomlin has never finished under .500 as coach of the Steelers. Allen set the Bills' franchise record for passing yards in a season (4,544) and passing touchdowns (37), finishing with a 107.2 passer rating. Andy Reids never-ending two-minute drill robbed us of what could have been an exciting ending. And in these two cases, both quarterbacks will have below-average pass protection in front of them, and both will be trying to compensate for their teams' defenses, which both rank in FPI's bottom six. Shaun Alexander had 1,880 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns.Shaun Alexander had 1,880 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns! So, which teams have won it all, but look inferior to their championship brethren in retrospect? San Francisco 49ers +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total), Tricky to put San Francisco here given the uncertainty at QB, but theres no way they actually start 21-year-old Trey Lance, right?. Another dynasty toppled by Tom Brady, but the "Legion of Boom" should not be undersold. How much this defense will improve under first-year head coach Brandon Staley will be an indicator whether the Chargers are playoff-caliber. Its more fun to speculate on the Bears QB race than it is their actual Super Bowl chances., 24. There's enough depth to get by. In a 122 season, this team only surrendered more than 20 points once during the regular season. A crummy game turned into an instant classic thanks to a brilliant game-winning drive authored by Joe Montana. The Titans thrust themselves into Super Bowl contention with the offseason addition of Julio Jones, a massive upgrade over departed free agent Corey Davis. The best chance they had and they were wide right. The Bucs finished the season, including playoffs, with the sixth-most efficient defense under coordinator Todd Bowles. Those questions need to be answered in a division where the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers defenses reside. 1) How is coach Zac Taylor going to go from 6-25-1 to the Super Bowl? However, these NFL teams should not be tossed aside because they lost the Super Bowl. New York Jets +10000 (bet $10 to win $1010 total), The Jets have the longest playoff drought in the NFL (10 years). As Rodgers' future hung in the balance over the summer, so too did the Packers' projections. The Bucs, despite not being quite on Kansas City's level, remain the favorite in the NFC and are the only other team to cross double digits in terms of chances to win the Super Bowl. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson don't lack confidence at NFL combine, Bettors are backing Bears, Lions, Jets to make, win Super Bowl, NFLPA report cards show link between player-friendly coaches and winning, Georgia's Nolan Smith turns heads with blazing 40 at NFL combine, Alabama QB Bryce Young confident in abilities, downplays questions about frame, Stroud opposes Bears drafting him, defends Fields: 'That's his team', Sharp: Ravens have themselves to blame for not getting Lamar Jackson help, 49ers offseason preview: Potential Super Bowl team must figure out QB spot. But it wasn't always so certain that FPI would give Green Bay the love. WebTechnically the truth. Self care and ideas to help you live a healthier, happier life. Joe Namath may have guaranteed a Super Bowl III win over the Baltimore Colts, but he didn't say anything about being the best team of all time. This isn't entirely a reflection on them, though FPI is never particularly bullish on rookie quarterbacks. Four teams have yet to even reach the Super Bowl (two of them started as a franchise after 1990). A 124 record and a solid defense? Those first three are the Broncos' first three games of the season, an easy slate right off the bat. Houston Texans +20000 (bet $10 to win $2010 total), Lowest win total on the board, uncertainty at QB, and a defense that cant stop a nose bleed.. A very good defense led by Andre Tippett and Steve Nelson. Los Angeles was a heavy underdog but actually took a lead into the fourth quarter. and Im sorry, but Dan Campbell is not winning the Super Bowl this year., 30. The Broncos could muster only 35 net passing yards. Winning close games and narrowly escaping the agony of defeat is one way to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and while that path may not be the most exciting or exhilarating, it has been traveled on multiple occasions. https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/01/2019-super-bowl-rankings-best-to-worst, a fascinating chess match between the Falcons and Patriots coaching staffs, Anthony Richardson showed off his freakish athleticism by breaking 2 NFL Combine records, Joey Porter Jr. shared a wholesome moment with dad Joey Porter at 2023 NFL Combine, Will Levis finally shared the origin story for his mayo coffee, How to watch the NFL Combine, live stream, TV channel, Quarterbacks, Receivers, Tight Ends, Bryce Young's measurements at the NFL Combine are almost identical to Kyler Murray's, C.J. A 97 team that wasn't top 10 in anything really. Don't sleep on the rest of the league, of course. Tom Brady also led a top offense in his MVP season, finishing with a 133 regular-season record. Maybe the biggest forgotten gem in sports history. ), and every Texans opponent's win total is inflated for the same reason. Throw in Trent Dilfer leading the other offense and a game that was never competitive, and this is easily the worst Super Bowl of all-time. The 1970s Steelers gave us one last entertaining Super Bowl before its dynasty ended. Zaven Collins has strong NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year capabilities and Isaiah Simmons is expected to take a huge step in his second year. A year before perfection. Historically, those are difficult to duplicate.. The only team in the division with a positive FPI rating -- making it above average -- is the Dallas Cowboys, who are just barely there at +0.7 (meaning they would be favored over an average NFL team by less than a point). The 2007 New England Patriots won every game (160) and did so in tremendous fashion. Buffalo Bills +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total), They went 15-2 against teams not named the Kansas City Chiefs last year, but via Warren Sharp, heres an incredible stat: The Bills had the good fortune of facing three West Coast teams last season at 1 p.m. Buffalo also went 6-1 in one-score games, including the playoff win over the Colts. 20. On the other end of the spectrum is Denver. Another Broncos blowout. Adding a consistent pass rush will make this team more competitive, but competing for a Super Bowl appears to be years away. 113 career TDs compared to 129 interceptions says that he doesn't deserve that victory. Kansas City will be this team's measuring stick, as the Chiefs are the only roster more talented than Buffalo's in the AFC. The Texans did finish 4-12 last season, even as Watson reached career highs in completion percentage (70.2), passing yards (4,823), touchdown passes (33). 1 pick. Atlanta Falcons +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total), New coach, new offensive coordinator just too much newness for me., That being said, going 2-8 in one-score games last year was a killer, and if the ball bounces differently in 2021, maybe theyre hovering around .500. 6. However, like most teams on this list, the Steelers had one glaring deficiency: the passing game. Unsung, their defense only allowed 17.1 points per game. Carolina Panthers +7000 (bet $10 to win $710 total), The Panthers were a fantastic 8-4 against the spread as an underdog last year, and theyre going to be underdogs frequently again this year. And we'll start with the Chiefs: More: He also has the most game-winning drives and tied for the most fourth-quarter comebacks in that span. 29 and 30. You have a few precious hours left to scout rosters, analyze schedules, weigh injuries and place your futures bets on who is going to win Super Bowl 56. The run offense needs to be stronger with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss as the offensive line has to create better holes up front to take the pressure off Allen. John Elway finally won his ring in a well-played game that featured one of the best performances by a running back in Super Bowl history. FPI is working under the assumption that Deshaun Watson will not play for the Texans this season. The Panthers and Patriots gave us the most exciting fourth quarter in Super Bowl history, combining for five scores, including an 85-yard pass by Jake Delhomme, which remains a Super Bowl record, and Adam Vinatieris game-winning kick as time expired. This was the first of the Cowboys three Super Bowl wins in the 90s. Nobody has a tougher September schedule: vs Seattle, vs the Rams, at Tennessee, at Miami, at Baltimore. Houston would be much higher on this list if Deshaun Watson's future with the team wasn't uncertain. Jalen Hurts will not pull a The Vikings have made the playoffs every odd-year season since coach Mike Zimmer took over in 2014, which bodes well for them in 2021. There's talent on the Falcons, but they are such an unknown heading into 2021. FPI considers Houston more than a touchdown worse than an average NFL team on a neutral field and believes the Texans simultaneously have the worst offense and worst defense in the league. A 142 record with the seventh best defense in points scored against in the league. The game itself may not be memorable but Marcus Allens 191-yard performance, which included the greatest run in Super Bowl history, pushes it into the top-30. Then Jim was thoroughly outcoached at every point by Sean Payton. At best, the Falcons are a playoff team, but theyd need something calamitous to happen to the Bucs to have a shot to win the division., 21. To handle the uncertainty in the timing of Wentz's return, FPI gives the QB a very small chance to play in Week 1 and gradually increases the chance of his return until Week 8 -- spanning the range of the recovery timeline laid out last week by coach Frank Reich. One could argue the Steelers have the worst QB in the division in 39-year old Ben Roethlisberger, who had 10 interceptions in the teams final seven games. The Tennessee Titans are one of 12 teams in the NFL to have never won a Super Bowl, and according to one writer, they are the furthest away from doing so of those dozen teams. But itll face Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers before Halloween. In the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh managed just 16 points and won a defensive slugfest 16-6. Had Rodgers simply decided to retire rather than suit up, Green Bay's chances to make the playoffs would have dropped from 70% to 24%, and their Super Bowl chances would have dropped from 6% to 0.2%. Unfortunately for them, that stopped in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. But we are going to look past that kick for just a minute. The Los Angeles Rams won in Super Bowl LVI versus the Bengals on February 13, 2022. And the Chiefs would hold at least a 3.5-point edge over every team outside of the Bucs, Bills and Ravens. ET (Rams, Seahawks, Chargers). If not for the dramatic ending, this game may have finished last on this list. Arizona has the potential to shock the NFL and win 11-plus games, emerging victorious in a strong NFC West. Sure, it was a massive upset and Joe Namaths guarantee adds to the lore, but the game itself was a bore. But they have arguably the toughest schedule in the NFC (nine games against playoff teams from 2020), including a stretch that goes: at Baltimore, at Chargers, home vs Aaron Rodgers, at the 49ers. Joe Montanas first Super Bowl win was nearly squandered after the 49ers let the Bengals nearly erase a 20-point deficit. 3) Only one of their final seven opponents has a season win total under 8.5. The agony of defeat. "Broadway Joe" completed just 49.2 percent of his passes during the season and threw two more interceptions (17) than he did touchdowns (15). One team (Patriots) in the last 25 years has been to three straight.. Kind of. Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Fran Tarkenton is one of many players on this list that deserved a Super Bowl ring. Super Bowl VIII: Pittsburgh sent six men to the Pro Bowl, went a decent 10-3-1 in the regular season and, of course, won the Lombardi Trophy. 14. Now, by most accounts, the Steelers were great in 1974. The one Peyton let get away. The Titans defense added Bud Dupree and Caleb Farley, but it may not be enough to make the the 24th-ranked unit (in points allowed) Super Bowl-caliber. 25. An 11-win season leaning on the talent of John Elway and the defense's ability to hold teams to under three touchdowns. Miamis three points is still the fewest points scored in a Super Bowl. WebThe Los Angeles Rams won in Super Bowl LVI versus the Bengals on February 13, 2022. I'll take my chances on a 1-in-15 shot that the Niners put all the pieces back together and raise the Lombardi in February. The Bills are good enough to get to the Super Bowl this year -- and win it. In a season without a normal offseason due to the pandemic, the 142 defending champs looked like easy Super Bowl favorites. A better offensive line will help Cousins out immensely, especially with playmakers like Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielenand Irv Smith. That being said, wait until they lose the opener to Tampa, and then get them at possibly better odds. A 14-win team with a top 10 offense and defense. Eli Manning did it to the Patriots again. Unfortunately, they had to go head-to-head with arguably the greatest defense of all-time in the '85 Bears. Wait, Dilfer isn't iconic. The Jaguars are still going to be exciting to watch in 2021 as Urban Meyer is the best college coach to enter the NFL in years, having arguably the most talented quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck in Trevor Lawrence. Listen below and follow the Pick Six podcast for a daily dose of everything you need to follow pro football. Buffalo is in position to make another deep playoff run this season. It all makes for a nice story, but the fact remains that the Giants were not a superb team. The game may have been bad, but this is NFL history. Super Bowl LIV (Source: KC Kingdom) Chiefs won the Super Bowl with a 31-20 score, their first since Super Bowl IV and after the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. Four NFL teams the Browns, Lions, Jaguars, and Texans have never appeared in the Super Bowl. Burrow should be ready by Week 1, and has an impressive cast of receivers that will make the Bengals passing game even more lethal in 2021. It featured the great comeback, the only overtime in Super Bowl history, not one but two spectacular catches and a fascinating chess match between the Falcons and Patriots coaching staffs. The NFC, with two of the top six teams in FPI rating, is a little less threatening than the AFC. When thinking about the 1990 season, it is hard to conjure up images of anything other than Buffalo Bills kicker Scott Norwood missing a potential Super Bowl-winning kick. The Browns also have a good defense that improved with the additions of John Johnson III at safety, Anthony Walker and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah at linebacker, Jadeveon Clowney at edge rusher, and Greg Newsome II at cornerback. The game lacked memorable moments but is significant because it was Elways last. Their strategy to run it back with nearly the same squad looks (on paper) like it could pay off; the Bucs have an 85% chance to reach the playoffs and a 15% shot to repeat as champions, according to FPI. This is the first game on this list that was actually competitive going into the fourth quarter, but it was a sloppy affair featuring seven fumbles and a pair of interceptions. Keep in mind, the Larry Fitzgerald touchdown catch (pictured above) was to go ahead with 2:37 left in the game. Cleveland already has one of the game's best pass rushers in Myles Garrett and cornerbacks in Denzel Ward. The presence of Lawrence gives Jacksonville hope for the first time in years. The Super Bowl has been around 55 years, yet more than a third of the league has never hoisted a Vince Lombardi Trophy. A step up from the traditional method is to look at the mean win total for every team's opponents, but this too has an issue; for instance, every Chiefs opponent's win total is depressed because it has to play the Chiefs (division opponents doubly so! A four-game stretch bridging October and November vs Bills, vs Chiefs, at Colts, at Rams should seal their fate. The AFL just wasn't ready yet, but they were still very good for AFL standards with an 11-2-1 record. It remains the worst run defense in NFL history. Herbert will have more protection to connect with a talented cast of offensive weapons as the Chargers rebuilt their offensive line centered around All-Pro Corey Linsley and first-round pick Rashawn Slater. You won't believe how good some of these teams were. Green and Rondale Moore at wide receiver. Discover unique things to do, places to eat, and sights to see in the best destinations around the world with Bring Me! Keep in mind, those numbers assume there is some chance Wentz plays in each of these games, particularly the later ones.